A ComRes poll commissioned by Britain Elects back in early September 2019 asked voters how they’d cast their ballots in the event of a general election being held before the UK’s departure from the EU.
The results put the Conservatives ahead of Labour by just 3pts.
There would be Recriminations on the way for Boris Johnson and the Conservatives if the UK’s departure from the EU was delayed, the polling suggested.
These figures were not too dissimilar to what other pollsters had found when posing the standard voting intention questions. It should be noted ComRes tends to record higher shares for Labour than others, and it does appear now that there is an uptick in support for the Liberal Democrats.
However, when voters were asked how they’d vote if the UK’s departure was delayed beyond the 31st October deadline, Labour would take 28%, ahead of the Tories on 26% – a 2pt gap between the top two. The Brexit Party would see a 3pt increase from the previous question to take 17%, and the Liberal Democrats would stand at 20%.
The prediction of a 3pt lead for the Conservatives doesn’t seem to have been correct at all of course, as just yesterday, the 31st October, saw the Tories polling at over 36%, Labour around 25%, Lib-Dems at 17%-18%, Brexit Party 11% and Greens almost 4% .
But these figures suggest an electoral backlash may still be in store for Boris Johnson, considering that Britain’s exit from the EU has been delayed beyond the 31st of October and the election is to be held almost six weeks away on December 12th. Voters could drift from the Tories to the Brexit Party, gifting Labour a chance at becoming the largest party, possibly with support from the Liberal Democrats.
It should be said that projecting what these figures might mean in seat compositions, however, through national swing calculators, would be a fool’s errand.
Previous polling commissioned by Britain Elects and others have yielded similar findings, all of which suggested the success or failure of Boris Johnson’s career as Prime Minister would come down to his ability to deliver Brexit to a deadline repeatedly affirmed by him since his ascendancy to Downing Street.
Add to this the fact that other issues may yet take precedence over Brexit, as happened last time we had a General Election that was meant to be fought on the Brexit issue in 2017, we could reasonably expect the present Conservative lead in the polls to shrink.
Methodology Note: ComRes surveyed 2,009 British adults on 4th – 6th September 2019. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all GB adults. All questions were also weighted by 2017 past vote recall and EU Referendum past vote. Voting Intention is also weighted by likelihood to vote. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.comresglobal.com
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